Vancouver Canucks: Re-Sign Radim Vrbata, Trade Jannik Hansen

The Vancouver Canucks could sell high on Jannik Hansen while buying low on Radim Vrbata.

Last week, I wrote about pending Vancouver Canucks free agents, including Radim Vrbata, and whether they are likely to be retained. To reiterate, as long as Jannik Hansen, and not Vrbata, is playing on the top line with Henrik Sedin and Daniel Sedin, there is little chance Vrbata will re-sign, and no reason for the Vancouver Canucks to try to keep him.

At the same time, at least one other writer has made the case that Vrbata should stay: he is second on the team in shots, while his PDO is worst on the Canucks, suggesting he has been a victim of some nasty bad luck. His possession numbers over the past three seasons show he is still a top-six calibre player despite his sub-par season.

So, there may be a statistical reason for Vrbata to be retained if possible. Yet, the case against his retention by the Vancouver Canucks is his asking price and where he fits in the line-up.

Not to mention that keeping Vrbata would create a new problem: what to do with Jannik Hansen, who has parleyed a full-time job on the Canucks top line into career highs in goals?

Here is an ideal — if optimistic — scenario, in which the Canucks could maximize their value on both players:

Next: Radim Vrbata: The Unluckiest Canuck

Radim Vrbata 2015-16: The Year of the Snake Bite

No question, this has been a tough year for Radim Vrbata.

After a team-leading 31 goals in 2014-2015, the Czech sniper has managed only 13 goals and 27 points in 61 games this season, putting him on pace for 33 points — among the worst single seasons of his career.

Even worse than mediocre offensive numbers are bad defensive numbers: Vrbata is among worst Canucks in plus-minus, with minus-30. This has a lot to do with deployment — Vrbata has spent much of the year playing with Bo Horvat.

In the absence of Brandon Sutter, Horvat found himself the go-to defensive zone faceoff man, by a wide margin: Bo took over 13 percent more face-offs in his own end than in the opposing end. (The next closest is Adam Cracknell, at 4.4 percent more).

Unfortunately for Vrbata, an offensive player, this means as long as he is playing with Horvat, he is forced to start many of his shifts in the defensive zone. He is ill-suited for this role, and it has shown.

Look at this chart from puckalytics.com and see how Vrbata’s offensive zone face-off percentage (OZone%) skyrockets when playing away from Horvat:

If Horvat lost the defensive face-off, the pair would often get pinned in their own zone and watch the opponent score a goal.

Note the low save percentage that Canucks goalies have with Horvat and Vrbata on the ice together. Now, think back to their plus-minus number. Suffice to say, opponents have scored a lot against this duo.

On the other hand, if Horvat won the draw and the Canucks were able to clear, they might generate a scoring chance in the opponent’s end. But with neither Vrbata nor Horvat having much luck converting their shots into goals, those scoring chances were often saved, blocked, or missed.

This in turn would sometimes allow the other team to generate yet another scoring chance in the Canucks end — and ultimately more minuses for both players.

At least for Horvat, this tragedy has moved toward a happy ending: Horvat has a 12.8 shooting percentage since January 1st.

Unfortunately for Vrbata, a continuing lack of finish has meant banishment from the top-six forward group, down onto a third or fourth line role with lesser linemates.

The unluckiest Canuck indeed.

Next: One More Chance for Vrbata

One More Year to Re-establish Himself

So, let’s chalk up Vrbata’s awful season to bad luck and unfamiliar deployment. Is there any reason to give Vrbata another shot?

Yes — and doing so might be in the best interest of both Radim Vrbata and the Vancouver Canucks.

Why should the Canucks keep Vrbata? 

At the trade deadline Jim Benning was not able to get enough value in return for Radim Vrbata.

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Perhaps this is a blessing in disguise for the Canucks. At his age, Vrbata will likely only get one more long-term contract in his career. He won’t necessarily want that contract to happen this summer, when he will have the lowest possible value.

So the Canucks might be able to convince Vrbata to sign a one-year deal at, say, $3-4 Million.

In 2016-2017, a much cheaper Vrbata would show up to Canucks training camp highly motivated, wanting to turn this one-year audition into the best possible contract to end his career.

The Canucks can offer him a prime opportunity to do exactly that.

If the Canucks can convince Vrbata to take an inexpensive one-year contract, they just might get their 30-goal scorer back.

There is one catch for Vancouver: Vrbata will not want to stay if his deployment next season will in any way resemble this season. That’s a given.

So, how can they convince him to stay?

Next: What's in it for Radim Vrbata?

Put Vrbata with the Sedins – and keep him there

After this year, would Radim Vrbata ever want to stay in a Vancouver Canucks uniform?

Maybe, just maybe.

What will it take to convince Vrbata to stay with the Canucks?

Here is how: to retain Vrbata, Canucks management will have give him some form of guarantee that he will play with the Twins.

Is this feasible? Hard to say exactly. Canucks coach Willie Desjardins would obviously need to be on board with this.

Either way, Vrbata needs to be kept on the Sedin line to have the biggest impact on his trade value and the team’s production.

Vrbata publicly complained about not having consistent linemates throughout the pre-season. He has been proven right about that being a problem. There is no way he rejoins the Canucks unless he is told up front that that problem will not be repeated.

From a line-up perspective, keeping him makes perfect sense for both parties: the Canucks need 2014-15 Vrbata with his 31 goals back. So the coach should play him on the line that helped him get those 31 goals in the first place.

Vrbata is a sniper who needs play-making linemates to pass him the puck. There are no better setup men on the team than the Sedins.

Vrbata was moved away from the Twins in the name of balanced scoring. Here’s the problem with that strategy: this year, the Canucks’ problem has not been a lack of balanced scoring. Their problem has been a lack of scoring, period.

The team has gone through stretches where only the top line has produced. At other times, the Sedin line has gone dry while the other three lines have carried the load.

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They can’t seem to get both of these things at the same time. The Canucks scoring has been anything but “balanced”.

So the focus needs to shift to squeezing as many goals as possible out of whoever can score them. That means putting Vrbata on the Sedin line, and keeping him there.

This is obviously what Vrbata has wanted since the year began. He signed in Vancouver two summers ago in order to play with Henrik and Daniel. They enjoyed some obvious success.

Vrbata can hardly turn down a chance to enjoy that same success the year before signing his last contract.

What is best for the Canucks happens to be what is best for Vrbata’s bottom line. That’s what Jim Benning needs to convince the soon-to-be 35-year-old of.

Re-signing Radim Vrbata helps Vrbata increase his value and gives the Canucks a relatively inexpensive top-six sniper who will be highly motivated to leave this season’s woes behind.

One problem solved, but another has been created: what to do with Jannik Hansen?

Next: What about Jannik Hansen?

Trade Jannik Hansen While His Value is Highest

Jannik Hansen, everyone’s favourite honey badger, was put on the Sedin line early in the year. As is usually the case with Sedin line mates, he responded with a career year in goals — 19 and counting — and is closing in on a new career-high in points (his current high is 39, in 2011-2012).

Hansen’s stock in Vancouver has never been higher – that’s why the Canucks should try to trade him now.

Related: 3 Reasons why the Canucks Should Trade Jannik Hansen

According to General Fanager, Hansen has a modified no-trade clause, meaning that he will have to submit a list of teams to general manager Jim Benning if he decided to trade the forward.

It won’t be hard to convince other NHL teams of the value of Jannik Hansen — he has played in every conceivable role in his time with the Vancouver Canucks.

Hansen can kill penalties. He can play on the powerplay. He can be a bottom-six checker. He’s physical. He’s fast.

After this year, Benning can point to his 20+ goals and say that Hansen can play as a top-six scoring winger. A player as useful as Hansen would highly coveted on the trade market.

So, if the general manager asks Hansen to waive his NTC and if Hansen agrees, where can he go?

In case it’s not already obvious, I think any NHL GM would be happy to make a deal for Hansen. And why not:

So let’s speak broadly about two types of teams Benning should target:

Next: Where Could Hansen Go?

Two Types of Teams Hansen Could be Traded to

Contending teams who fall short in the 2016 Playoffs:

Expectations are high for a lot of teams. In fact, each of the top three teams in the four divisions has a realistic shot at a berth Stanley Cup Final.

Which means that there will be a lot of teams that fall a long way short of their expectations. Might they decide to make some major roster moves to get over the hump? Could Hansen be their missing piece?

The advantage of trading with this sort of team is that it should be easy to convince Hansen to waive. He would leave a team that is rebuilding and join a team with a chance to win now. That has to be attractive to any player, as it was with Bieksa and Ryan Kesler.

The other advantage is that this sort of team may have significant pieces that they are willing to part with — such as a top-4 defenseman, or an A-level prospect. Jannik Hansen paired with another player, prospect, or pick, may get the job done.

Teams with a key player requesting a trade:

Both the New York Islanders and the Tampa Bay Lightning have valuable players which have asked to be traded. Namely, Travis Hamonic and Jonathan Drouin, respectively.

Neither Garth Snow or Steve Yzerman are going to give these players away. But a player as useful and dependable as Hansen could provide the necessary temptation. Sure, Hansen by himself may not be enough, but surely the Canucks can throw in something else to make the deal sweet enough.

Both Tampa and New York fall under the category of “contending teams who could fall short.” So convincing Hansen to waive should still not pose a great challenge.

And on a team with a goal differential of minus-31, either Hamonic or Drouin would be a welcome addition. Hamonic, because he is solid top-4 defenseman, and the Canucks might fail to re-sign veteran Dan Hamhuis. Drouin, because he is a high-end scoring talent that the Canucks don’t necessarily have.

Next: Conclusion