Vancouver Canucks Tanking 101: The Right Model of Tanking
Tanking for the Vancouver Canucks might be as difficult to do as making the playoffs. No. Really.
The Vancouver Canucks are going to require a plan if they were to tank. Aside from the ultimate question — whether they should tank or not — this might be the most important thing to do: to map out the trajectory of this disgraceful trip to the bottom of the standings.
Rest assured. The Canucks are not the first team to try this art of #TankNation.
Tanking isn’t about losing. Tanking is simply a potentially painful way of creating a contender. It essentially achieves the same ultimate goal as a successful youth movement achieves — winning Lord Stanley’s hardware.
And as you will see, there are many different ways to build a contender. There are many ways to tank in building a contender, there are many different models of tanking.
Is trying to replicate a particulate model of tanking the right thing for the Canucks, or does Jim Benning need to find some originality and create a Vancouver’s model of tanking?
The unique thing about Vancouver this season is that the youth movement happens to coincide with the potential tank. On that note, could it be the youth movement that is actually causing the 2015-16 struggle? Can’t think so.
What I do think is that the Canucks are not alone this season.
Canada has a 67% chance of landing #NHL's No. 1 pick. All 7 teams mashed 22d to 30th place: https://t.co/3ctpVbqRa3 pic.twitter.com/04BAh9srD5
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) February 16, 2016
67 percent. Yikes. Should we be cringing to that figure or celebrating? It might not be long until every Canadian team has its own version of Connor McDavid.
Anyhow. The Canucks find themselves in a unique situation, potentially tanking with aging stars in Daniel and Henrik Sedin, rising stars in Bo Horvat, Jared McCann, Jake Virtanen, Jacob Markstrom, and Ben Hutton, and potentially more youth making waves in Thatcher Demko and Brock Boeser.
If the Canucks do tank, they can’t mess this up. So the quest to establish the right model of tanking begins… Continuing the Tanking 101 series, let us find the right model of tanking for these Vancouver Canucks.
Next: Model No. 1: Tanking in Edmonton
Model No. 1: Tanking in Edmonton (2009 ~ Now)
If you can explain tanking without mentioning our dear Edmonton Oilers, I applaud you greatly. The Great Tank for the Great Connor McDavid has flourished to become the backbone of the central dogma #TankNation.
Top-Five Picks of Significance
- Connor McDavid, First Overall (2015)
- Leon Draisaitl, Third Overall (2014)
- Nail Yakupov, First Overall (2012)
- Ryan Nugent-Hokpins, First Overall (2011)
- Taylor Hall, First Overall (2010)
Other notes of significance
- Edmonton has not appeared in the playoffs since the 2005-2006 season.
- In the ensuing 10 seasons, six coaches have coached the Oilers. Including current coach Todd McLellan, note that the Oilers have cut ties with Craig MacTavish, Pat Quinn, Tom Renney, Ralph Krueger, and Dallas Eakins.
- McDavid has 24 points in 20 games this year. That is equivalent to 98 points in 82 games.
- The Oilers have sold out at home ever since 2006.
Tanking in Edmonton: Utmost Patience
Marvelous is the fact that Edmonton has sold out every game despite their seemingly life-long tanking. You can’t but feel sorry for these fans, until you realize how lucky they have been to get these ridiculously draft picks, lucky enough to get a McDavid thanks to the lottery. So what about their tank?
No veteran presence can be found on the Oilers’ lineup. 36-year-old Andrew Ference and 34-year-old Matt Hendricks have less than 10 points between them this season, and no other player in Edmonton is over 30-years-old.
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Edmonton’s failure serves to prove that even when a team is tanking or coming out of the tanking phase, it needs to retain a certain level of veteran presence on the roster.
Building around the defence could need some veteran presence, too. Ference has played just six games this season, and the rest of the blueline is composed of solely of players in their 20’s. This is even bigger a problem when 28-year-old Cam Talbot is the number one netminder in town.
Balanced Drafting would have solved the defensive woes. As one can see above, the Oilers have drafted in the top three consistently in the past six years, four times with the very first pick. At all times, they have drafted forwards.
So who were the defencemen that the Oilers had chance to draft, aside from Darnell Nurse at seventh overall in 2013? The latest draft has a valid excuse — anyone in any organization would have picked McDavid over the top defencemen of the draft, Noah Hanafin and Ivan Provorov.
The 2014 draft was a missed chance with another valid excuse, as Aaron Ekblad was picked first overall.
But in 2012, Ryan Murray was available as a top option. In 2011, Dougie Hamilton and Adam Larsson were also top options that were picked in the top ten. In 2010, Erik Gudbranson and Cam Fowler were available.
Maybe in defence of the Oilers, notice how the top defencemen when the Oilers had the top picks before the addition of Draisaitl and McDavid. But the case for Murray still looks strong in my opinion, to have been drafted over Nail Yakupov.
Next: Model No. 2: Tanking in Chicago
Model No. 2: Tanking in Chicago (2003 ~ 2007)
With three Stanley Cups in the past six years under coach Joel Quenneville, the Chicago Blackhawks are one of the best examples of successful tanking. The star power is there, and the wins are there, unlike in Edmonton. The Canucks hate both the Blackhawks and the Oilers though.
Top-Five Picks of Significance
- Patrick Kane, First Overall (2007)
- Jonathan Toews, Third Overall (2006)
- Cam Barker, Third Overall (2004)
Other notes of significance
- Chicago used three coaches over the tanking seasons. Brian Sutter was let go, soon followed by Trent Yawney and Denis Savard.
- Only two years’ worth of tanking paid off. Only Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are the top-five picks that have had success in the NHL.
- Ever since the final year of tanking, Joel Quenneville has made sure that the Blackhawks reached the playoffs, even to this day.
- And during Quenneville’s tenure, Chicago’s average attendance has not dipped below 21 000 per game. When Chicago was tanking, they averaged about 13 000 per game.
Tanking in Chicago: Quick and Opportunistic
The Hawk Dynasty is strong and so was the rival hatred between Chicago and Vancouver. But notice that some household Blackhawk names are not on the top-five picks of significance. Where are the Crawfords, the Keiths, the Hossas, and the Seabrooks?
Call it luck or superb drafting and player development, but the Chicago Blackhawks have done a terrific job of snatching late-round gems. But do not overlook the fact that all the players that the Blackhawks have selected in the past four years combine to have played just 106 NHL games to date.
Note these gems that the Blackhawks have selected in their tanking years, but not with the top picks:
- Niklas Hjalmarsson, 108th overall in 2005
- Dave Bolland, 32nd overall in 2004
- Bryan Bickell, 41st overall in 2004
- Troy Brouwer, 214th overall in 2004
- Dustin Byfuglien, 245th overall in 2003
- Corey Crawford, 52nd overall in 2003
- Brent Seabrook, 14th overall in 2003
Notice the fine balance of defencemen and forwards. Because of the great picks in Byfuglien, Crawford, Seabrook, and Hjalmarsson, the Blackhawks could pull off an “Edmonton Oiler” drafting strategy with their own top picks in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews.
And also do not be fooled with all these top picks working out to be top players. Cam Barker, who actually had a stint in Vancouver, will testify.
Veteran presence was not neglected in Chi Town. Jaroslav Spacek was on the 2005-06 lineup (albeit traded to Edmonton mid-season), alongside Matthew Barnaby and Martin Lapointe. Do not forget Adrian Aucoin, either.
Next: Model No. 3: Tanking in Florida
Model No. 3: Tanking in Florida (2010 ~ 2014)
You know that years of missing the playoffs pays off when everything is smiles in the locker room. Thanks to the return of Bobby Luo to Sunrise, Florida, the Panthers are looking like a contender, especially having had a historic winning streak this season. They are a sure shot to make the playoffs, perhaps one of the best lineups in Panthers history.
Top-Five Picks of Significance
- Aaron Ekblad, First Overall (2014)
- Aleksander Barkov, Second Overall (2013)
- Jonathan Huberdeau, Third Overall (2011)
- Erik Gudbranson, Third Overall (2010)
Other notes of significance
- The Panthers have won just three playoff games in the 21st century, just one playoff appearance in the last 15 seasons.
- Of the players Florida has drafted in the past four years, only two have played in the NHL to date (Ekblad and Barkov).
Tanking in Florida: Fixing Struggles with Experience
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Veteran presence is so obvious is Florida. The Panthers are showing that to lead a team from the tanking years to its winning years, you need veterans around. Jaromir Jagr (RW, 44), Roberto Luongo (G, 36), Brian Campbell (D, 36), Willie Mitchell (D, 38), Marc Savard (C, 38) and Shawn Thornton (LW, 38) will testify.
Again, the balance of veteran defencemen is key. Mitchell, Campbell, and netminder Luongo hold strong the blueline now led by Aaron Ekblad (hello, Edmonton Oilers, again) and also with Erik Gudbranson in the mix.
That is the reason the Panthers can draft and develop Huberdeau and Barkov. The Panthers look like a healthy organization who followed a healthy model of tanking.
Next: Day Two Bottomline: The Vancouver Model is?
Day Two Bottomline: The Vancouver Model of Tanking?
Will tanking really come to Vancouver? That question comes with a lot of strings attached. Hold on fellas, I will tackle it in full force this Saturday on my Canucklehead Lament.
Prospects of Significance
- C, Bo Horvat
- RW, Jake Virtanen
- C, Jared McCann
- D, Ben Hutton
- G, Jacob Markstrom
Tanking in Florida: Tanking a Youth Movement
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- Back to the future: How the skate uniforms became a regular Canucks’ feature night
- Canucks kick off 2023 with disappointing 6-2 loss to Islanders
- 2nd period penalty trouble sinks Canucks in 4-2 loss against Winnipeg
The way the Canucks have been playing lately with the veterans slacking and the kids pressing, tanking a youth movement seems virtually impossible to achieve.
But looking at the flip side, may I suggest that the Canucks, as an organization, are in a position a few years already into the tank.
“Tanking” without losing is what the Canucks have accomplished in the past few seasons. With good picks in the past few years, the Canucks have a good batch of kids coming up on the offence — like the Edmonton Oilers. I list Virtanen, Horvat, and McCann under this list.
Grabbing that ninth overall pick in exchange for Cory Schneider and picking Bo Horvat might have saved the Canucks franchise. Without tanking, they essentially put themselves in a tanker’s position at the draft by picking Horvat.
Then the Lost Season happened. Jake Virtanen came to town. This was essentially a tank year for the Canucks, one that didn’t feel much like a terribly losing season. Hindsight? Maybe.
Glimpses of Chicago can be found in the luck the Canucks have had. Thatcher Demko was a great pickup in the second round, and Ben Hutton was a terrific steal in the fifth round. In order to tank, you have to have these lucky picks, you know.
Last but not least, the veteran presence is here already. The Sedins and Alex Burrows are here. Ryan Miller is here. Dan Hamhuis is here, too. This bears resemblance of the Florida Panthers. The balance is there, the experience in net, on the blueline, and the scoring department.
Then why isn’t it working?
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- Brock Boeser, Curtis Lazar placed on injury reserve
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Who said it wasn’t working in the first place? If we indeed equate the youth movement to a tank that is already in effect, the result of the tank is the youth movement, which will pull the Canucks out of the tanking.
Vancouver has to just wait.
Chicago took five years. Florida took five years. Edmonton is taking forever. If I include the 2012-13 season as part of the “effective tank” that led to the drafting of Horvat, that five-year period should end in the 2017-18 season.
Just two more years, folks. But if Jim Benning wants to rebuild fully, the Canucks should dispose of the lost season this year and pray that an Auston Matthews or a Matthew Tkachuk lands in Vancouver.
It also means keeping some veterans around, continuing to draft all-around, and continuing to show support for the team. Are we up to the challenge? What Vancouver will need to do is pull of the ultimate tanking.
A #Tank does not happen in just one season. The Canucks will have to combine these three models of tanking — the talent and luck in Edmonton, the drafting prowess in Chicago, and the veteran excellence in Florida — and make the ultimate model of tanking for Vancouver.
Next: Tanking 101: A Plan of Action
What are your thoughts on these models of tanking and the model that Vancouver needs to craft for itself? Let us know in the comments!
*drafting history courtesy of HockeyDB.com