Vancouver Canucks: The Rebuild Could End in 2016
The Vancouver Canucks’ “rebuild on the fly” has failed. Now what if I told you it hasn’t?
For the second time in three years, the Vancouver Canucks are expected to miss the playoffs. Between 2008 and 2013, the club won five consecutive Northwest Division titles, two Western Conference championships and two President’s Trophies. They were at the very top in 2011, when they ultimately failed to make Lord Stanley’s Cup theirs in a devastating Game 7 loss against the Boston Bruins.
That is now history.
Today, the Canucks are in the midst of a “rebuild on the fly” that many fans see failing. But is it really?
Henrik and Daniel Sedin aren’t getting younger. That’s no secret. However, Canucks general manager Jim Benning has done a great job drafting promising players — even outside of the top-20 picks, e.g. goaltender Thatcher Demko, forward Brock Boeser and defenceman Tate Olson — and bringing in young NHL-ready players like Emerson Etem and Sven Baertschi. Then there are obviously the higher draft picks like Bo Horvat or Jake Virtanen.
Overall, the Canucks have a lot of talent on their roster and just need to get through their little rough patch. There have been rumblings about several players possibly being interested in signing with Vancouver, and free agency promises to be extremely exciting. In fact, the upcoming off-season might just be enough to finish the rebuild.
You don’t believe me? Then get ready for this blindly optimistic off-season outlook!
Next: The Draft
The Draft
For the Vancouver Canucks, the 2016 NHL Entry Draft could be the most exciting day of the year — unless they make the playoffs, which is obviously still a possibility. Now, for this 100 percent optimistic take, let’s just assume the Canucks miss the playoffs and end up owning a lottery pick.
Thanks to the Edmonton Oilers, who have found a way to win just about every draft lottery in the past decade (that’s how it seems, anyway), the NHL decided to change the lottery format. Basically, all it does is lower Edmonton’s odds while giving every other team a better chance to win the first-overall selection which will likely be Zurich Lions forward Auston Matthews this year.
The odds of winning the first overall selection in the NHL Draft for the 14 non-Playoff teams will be adjusted to more appropriately reflect the current state of competitive balance in the League. This will result in a more evenly-balanced allocation of odds, with the 10 highest-finishing non-Playoff qualifying teams receiving higher (better) Draft Lottery odds than they received previously and the four lowest-finishing teams receiving lower (worse) odds. The revised set of odds will remain in effect year-to-year in the future. — NHL.com
That’s one way to put it. But, trust me, this is all about Edmonton.
As of today, the Canucks would have a six percent chance to win the lottery. However, since the Canucks are arguably the worst team in the NHL right now, those odds may improve by the end of the season. As opposed to previous seasons, the first three picks will be drawn, meaning that finishing 23rd in the league can still mean a pick anywhere in the top three for the Canucks.
Related: 5 Draft Targets outside of the Top 5
Thanks to the NHL Lottery Simulator, we can simulate what that will look like. Running the simulator 100 times — because I obviously have nothing better to do — Edmonton still got 15 first-overall picks and 50 top-three picks. But that is better than the 25 percent chance the Oilers used to have. In my test runs, the Canucks won the first-overall selection eight times while getting 24 top-three selections. Not great, but there is indeed a chance.
Now, since we are being optimistic, let’s assume the Canucks draft somewhere in the top three. That means they will either get centre Auston Matthews or one of the Finnish wingers Jesse Puljujarvi and Patrik Laine.
Matthews decided to embark on a totally unique adventure as he set off to Zurich, Switzerland, instead of going the junior or college route. In Switzerland’s National Liga A, he has scored 23 goals and added 15 assists for 38 points in 32 games so far. He is ready to join the North American pros and make a difference — something similar to what Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel have been doing in recent years.
Jesse Puljujarvi plays for Karpat Oulu in the Finnish Liiga. There, he is getting top-six and power-play minutes in one of Europe’s top leagues. He has eight goals and 20 points through 44 games this season, but can convince scouts with his other assets as well. At 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, Puljujarvi is huge for a 17-year-old. He is a very good skater and can play physically. He, too, may be ready to join the NHL in 2016.
Related: 5 Late-Round Draft Options
Last but not least, there is Patrik Laine, a winger for Tappara of the Finnish Liiga. He is the only player who was able to dethrone Matthews — at least on McKeen’s prospect rankings. Laine, a 6-foot-4, 207-pound forward has an equally crazy frame. His production is a tad better than Puljujarvi’s, as he sits at 13 goals and 27 points in 36 games played. He will be ready to join the NHL this year.
So, what does this mean for the Canucks? If they end up drafting one of the top-three forwards, they might have an extremely talented player to jump right in and help the NHL team.
Obviously, Vancouver could decide to give Laine or Puljujarvi — whoever they end up drafting — some time in the American Hockey League like the Toronto Maple Leafs are doing it with William Nylander and the Colorado Avalanche with Mikko Rantanen. However, Nylander and Rantanen are currently the league’s best players and both Laine and Puljujarvi could be better than Nylander and Rantanen.
Not trying to raise expectations here, but if the Canucks own a top-three draft pick in June, things will get fun.
Next: Free Agency
Free Agency
Milan Lucic. Steven Stamkos. Those are the two names that have frequently been mentioned in Canucks free-agency rumours.
But they won’t be the only interesting players this summer. Here is a list of just a short selection of players that are not yet signed for the 2016-17 season and after — including the aforementioned duo.
- C Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
- C Eric Staal, Carolina Hurricanes
- LW Milan Lucic, Los Angeles Kings
- D Brian Campbell, Florida Panthers
- D Keith Yandle, New York Rangers
- D Alex Goligoski, Dallas Stars
Some of those players will likely get re-signed before they hit free agency. But what if they don’t?
With the departures of Radim Vrbata, Dan Hamhuis, Brandon Prust, Matt Bartkowski and Yannick Weber, the Canucks will save $15.25 million in salary cap space that they can invest in free agents.
#Canucks SixPack from Saturday - HNIC thinks Vancouver cld take a run at Stamkos - https://t.co/ZW0pfuI9pF pic.twitter.com/XINcz2vWn8
— Omar A.R. (@omarcanuck) January 11, 2016
As outlined before, the Stamkos rumours are, unfortunately, extremely unrealistic. But, how about, say, Milan Lucic and Keith Yandle? Both Lucic and Yandle are likely looking for contracts with annual salaries of $6 million. That would leave the Canucks with $3.25 million saved on their current free agents.
Lucic, a 27-year-old power forward from Vancouver, has been rumoured to be interested in signing with the Canucks for a long time. After spending his junior career with the Western Hockey League’s Vancouver Giants, he was drafted by the hated Boston Bruins in 2006. Not hated by Lucic, but hated by Canucks fans — especially since that 2011 Stanley Cup run that Lucic and the Bruins capped off with a victory and Vancouver did not.
Who would Lucic play with if the Canucks signed him? We’ll talk about that in a bit.
First, lets get back to Yandle. Lucic is a Vancouver native and is reportedly interested in signing with the Canucks. Yandle? Well, he’s just signing in Van for the fun of it.
Next: The Roster
The Roster
Now, the Canucks have equipped their roster with several nice additions. To keep it at least somewhat realistic, I decided against signing Stamkos and settled on Puljujarvi or Laine as the Canucks’ 2016 first-round selection.
That said, Keith Yandle, Milan Lucic and Patrik Laine/Jesse Puljujarvi would be more than solid additions for the club. So, what could the 2016-17 lineup look like with these players?
Line 1: Sedin – Sedin – Hansen
Henrik and Daniel Sedin will continue to do their Sedinery — with or without Jannik Hansen. However, for the most part, I liked Hansen with the Sedins. Not only because it worked quite well most of the time, but also because having a full Scandinavian line is pretty cool. Alternatively, Laine/Puljujarvi could slot in on the Sedins’ right wing as well, keeping the Scandinavian line alive. But, an NHL top line is probably too much responsibility for Day 1.
Line 2: Lucic – Sutter – Laine/Puljujarvi
NHL clubs continue to get rid of their goons and their totally unskilled bottom six. However, that does not mean the Canucks can’t have a line that is extremely tough to play against. Lucic: 6-foot-3, 236 pounds. Sutter: 6-foot-3, 190 pounds. Laine: 6-foot-4, 207 pounds/Puljujarvi: 6-foot-3, 201 pounds. A skilled second line that is tough to play against and defensively responsible almost sounds too good to be true.
Line 3: Baertschi – Horvat – Virtanen
The Canucks’ current second line gets Jake Virtanen for the departed Radim Vrbata and moves down to third. In fact, the second and third line could just get an equal amount of ice time. Sven Baertschi looks like he is good enough for the NHL and no defensive liability anymore. Bo Horvat and Jake Virtanen can help on the defensive side if need be. Plus, obviously, this is a very skilled trio as well.
Line 4: Burrows – McCann – Etem
Jared McCann on the fourth line in his sophomore season? Ugh. But what are we going to do? This team wants to get back into the playoffs and Sedin, Sutter and Horvat are the better players right now. So, McCann will continue to get sheltered minutes with Alexandre Burrows and Emerson Etem on his wings. This line could be labelled “the rest,” but at the same time, it is quite promising too.
Extra: Dorsett
Derek Dorsett starts the season as (hopefully) a healthy scratch. Linden Vey might have to take a seat beside him in the press box, but the Canucks might not have enough room on their roster to extend his contract. A restricted free agent, Vey could be shipped out anytime starting today.
You might have noticed that Hunter Shinkaruk is still not on this roster. Sad story, I know. However, injuries happen — though hopefully not as frequently as in 2015-16 — and Shinkaruk will be No. 1 on the call-up list.
1st D-Pairing: Yandle – Tanev
Keith Yandle and Christopher Tanev. Does that not sound like a legitimate top pairing to you? The Canucks finally got what they need.
2nd D-Pairing: Edler – Pedan
With Yandle in, Alexander Edler can finally move down to the second pairing. He is still a valuable part of the roster, but he is not a No. 1 defenceman anymore. Is Andrey Pedan ready for a second-pairing role? We are about to find out.
3rd D-Pairing: Hutton – Biega
Ben Hutton is developing nicely, and a pairing of Hutton and Alex Biega would certainly be fun to watch. If everything goes well, they could get the tough minutes Edler and Pedan can’t handle. That’s me being optimistic, anyway.
Extra: Sbisa
Luca Sbisa is not needed anymore. The best words you’ve heard today.
Goalies: Miller – Markstrom
Ryan Miller will play the final season of his Canucks career, splitting games with Jacob Markstrom. Here’s to hoping Markstrom will be ready to be a starter next season.
But, this would only fix things short-term, right? How is the rebuild over in 2016? Just read on…
Next: The Future
The Future
Let’s start this off with another list of players.
- G Thatcher Demko, Boston College
- D Tate Olson, Prince George Cougars
- D Jordan Subban, Utica Comets
- D Guillaume Brisebois, Baie-Comeau Drakkar
- D Nikita Tryamkin, Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg
- LW Hunter Shinkaruk, Utica Comets
- LW Brendan Gaunce, Utica Comets
- RW Brock Boeser, University of North Dakota
- RW Alexandre Grenier, Utica Comets
Those are nine players who are expected to make the NHL. Some sooner, others later. Most important on this list are probably Demko, Shinkaruk and Boeser. But the rest should not be ignored.
Furthermore, we need to keep in mind that these players will come in in addition to guys like Horvat, Virtanen, McCann and Hutton — and Laine/Puljujarvi, obviously.
So, what does that mean for the club and its ongoing rebuild? Is it over? I would say so.
Sure, the Sedins will retire in 2018. Demko and Markstrom are the goalie duo of the future and many other things about this roster will change. Perhaps Shinkaruk will come in for Baertschi and Baertschi gets traded. Who knows.
Related: Canucks Risking to Lose Thatcher Demko?
But, that is totally normal. Teams change over time. The rebuild is done once you have a competitive team that has enough depth in their system to stay competitive for several years.
How realistic are the moves? Let’s just call them somewhat realistic. A lot of this theory depends on how well players develop rather than how realistic the free-agent signings are. When will Horvat and McCann be ready to be No. 1 and No. 2 on the depth chart? Will Markstrom ever be good enough to be a starter? When will Demko be ready? Was Virtanen worth the sixth-overall pick?
Endless questions. But we can say this:
The Vancouver Canucks could end their rebuild in the summer of 2016 (with a little bit of luck, perhaps).
Next: Tanking 101: A Look at Tanking History
What do you think? Will the Canucks be able to finish their rebuild in 2016? Let us know in the comments!