Vancouver Canucks Schedule Analysis: Great Playoff Chances
The Vancouver Canucks will make the Playoffs.
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The Vancouver Canucks are almost there. Wrap up this road trip above .500, and come home to taste the blessings of the second half that the NHL schedule makers have endowed upon you.
Vancouver might have been discontent with a difficult first half to the season. But they are blessed with the perfect second half schedule — and I mean perfect. They have the perfect schedule and their competitors have significantly worse schedules.
Almost everyone is healthy, and although that might cause roster space issues, the Canucks will take the upgrade. Ryan Miller is back and Jacob Markstrom is now a proven netminder, and a strong goaltending duo is always a part to a strong team.
The players are here. If they maintained a .500 record with that many injuries, you can bet that they can stay above .500 with Brandon Sutter, Luca Sbisa, and Miller back in the lineup. But what about the schedule? It is a schedule that will have the Canucks in the Playoffs this year after months of injured hockey.
Next: Schedule Advantage #1
Schedule Advantage #1: Home Cookin’
After the Canucks wrap up their current six-game road trip, they will have no more Eastern road trips. The longest remaining trip they will have will be a short three-game trip through the Central. That will be three of just 13 more road games that the Canucks will have to play after the Eastern trip is over.
Although the Canucks have not capitalized on home-ice advantage — Vancouver is 9-8-4 at home this year — simply being home to be able to practice and rest should give them a boost. Just look at the latest homestand in which they finished 4-2-1, for nine of possible 14 points.
Next: Schedule Advantage #2
Schedule Advantage #2: Easy Games Ahead
I get it. No games are easy in today’s NHL. But look at the quality of opponents ahead on the Canucks’ agenda, compared to their competitors’ — the San Jose Sharks, the Anaheim Ducks, the Calgary Flames, even the Nashville Predators, the Colorado Avalanche, and the Winnipeg Jets.
The Canucks have only three games remaining against the “powerhouse teams” of the West, that is, the Dallas Stars, the Chicago Blackhawks, and the L.A. Kings. That is the least of all the teams mentioned above. The Sharks, the Avalanche, and the Flames have to play five games against the powerhouse teams, and the Ducks and the Preds have to play eight games against them. The Jets have seven upcoming.
If we expand that three-team powerhouse list to the top five teams (include the Minnesota Wild and the St. Louis Blues) of the West, the comparison favours the Canucks even more. The Canucks only have six games against West’s top-five, while the other six teams average 10 games against them.
Next: Schedule Advantage #3
Schedule Advantage #3: Controlling their Own Destiny
The amount of control the Canucks have on their own destiny is surreal. By the end of the road trip, the Canucks will have 18 games left against Pacific Division rivals and 18 against the six teams mentioned above. Taking into account overlaps between the two groups, that is 25 of their last 33 games that are “four-point games”.
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If the Canucks manage to salvage just 60 percent of the points available in those 25 games and stay an even .500 for the rest (so 13, including the road trip after the Washington Capitals loss), that is good for 43 points, a season total of 87 points. The final wild-card spot in the West (held by Colorado as I write) is projected to be at 84 points, based off of projections using the Avalanche’s record to date.
All the math aside, 87 points is higher than 84. And the 87 point projection comes using an injury-riddled Vancouver squad as the sample. If the Canucks managed an even 17-17-10 without Sutter, Sbisa, and Dan Hamhuis, they will be better than an 87-point team with them. That will be more than enough to climb into that last wild-card spot in the West.
Enough numbers already. I did tell you that I like numbers, right? Numbers tell me that the Canucks are making the playoffs.
In more concrete terms, the Canucks have five games against San Jose that they have yet to play. They have three games each against the Flames, the Avalanche, and the Predators that they have yet to play. The opportunity is there to steal the points from these “four-point” affairs.
Next: The Roundup
The Roundup
The Canucks still have a highly valid chance to get into the 2016 playoffs after months of injured hockey. If Vancouver is still within the .500-range without their second line centre, their third-best defenceman, a top-six defenceman, and their starting goaltender, there is no reason the Canucks can’t leap over the projections march onto the final West Wild-card spot, and into the playoffs.
See you in April, folks.
Next: Has Alex Edler Lost a Step?
What is your take on the upcoming schedule and the chances of the Canucks taking advantage of it to get into the playoffs? Is my projection a reasonable minimal expectation for the Canucks, or will they shoot above it?
*All stats and schedules courtesy of nhl.com