February has been a fantastic month for Zack Kassian. In fact, you might say the Canucks have experienced something of a Zack Attack recently. His scoring streak has been matched by a fantastic celebration streak. However with all his goal scoring, Kassian still found himself in the press box against the Rangers, and he isn’t necessarily trusted to be on the ice late in close games. I don’t know how Willie Desjardins can resist that adorable toothless grin, but clearly he is made of stronger stuff than I.
With only a few short days until the deadline, one of the biggest questions is what will happen to Kassian. It wasn’t that long ago that most Canucks fans (and media) assumed that a trade was inevitable. Kassian wasn’t living up to expectations and Jim Benning made it clear that he was listening to offers. Although some brave souls suggested keeping him was a better option, it seemed likely he wouldn’t make it past the deadline as a Canuck. Then February happened. Now he has nine points in the last ten games, including a game winning goal against Boston and a two goal game against the Devils. There are really two questions to ask here. First, who is Zack Kassian really? Second, should the Canucks trade him?
A quick glance at the numbers make it pretty clear that Kassian’s recent run is unsustainable. He has scored his seven goals in February on fourteen shots – a 50% shooting rate. Now, I’ve always been told you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, but I’m pretty sure no one’s ever said you miss 50% of the shots you do take. That seems a little high. Overall for the season Kassian is shooting 19.1%, with 9 goals on 47 shots. It’s probably fair to say that he won’t be on this tear forever. His underlying possession numbers are not terrible, but not great. His Corsi is currently sitting at 50.7%, no doubt helped by his recent time spent playing with the Sedins. According to Behind the Net, he is finishing a majority of his shifts outside of the offensive zone (56% of his shifts), which suggests he’s not always driving play the right way. Certainly there are reasons Desjardins distrusts Kassian. And it’s likely he won’t be able to sustain this scoring pace long term.
But there are several positive signs that should not be overlooked. First of all, Kassian has been able to maintain a pace of 2 points per 60 minutes in his last two seasons. This suggests that in limited minutes Kassian is still able to put points on the board at a reasonable pace. To put the number in perspective, his P/60 is at the same level as Henrik Sedin this year. Now this can be a terribly misleading stat. For example, the Canucks’ P/60 leader this year is Tom Sestito, with one assist in 18:43 of ice time. But over a larger sample size it can become a fairly reliable marker of offensive skill. Kassian’s sample size is still small, admittedly, but it’s trending in the right direction. What’s even more impressive is that he’s doing this completely at even strength, with only one goal on the powerplay this season.
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Kassian is also not all that far off of his career shooting percentage of 14.1%. He obviously won’t stick around 20% this season, but he doesn’t have all that far to fall to be close to his career average. This stat goes both ways however – you could argue that he really doesn’t shoot enough. In 192 career games he only has 241 total shots to his credit. That’s way too low for the type of power forward the Canucks want Kassian to become. But some of these career numbers do show us that his recent run isn’t entirely out of character for him.
Is Kassian suddenly an elite NHL forward? Probably not. But the Canucks aren’t asking for elite, at least not yet. What he is doing right now is making the most of his opportunities. I’m not sure exactly how sheltered he has been from tough minutes, but it seems that he hasn’t been overly protected. He hasn’t been buried in possession this season, and he lands right around the middle of the pack in terms of quality of competition. The eye test suggests that the trust isn’t fully there from Desjardins, but the numbers suggest he isn’t a disaster on the ice either.
So how do you solve a problem like Kassian? The good news is that he has made the question more difficult. Jim Benning and Trevor Linden have to decide whether this is simply a fluky streak, or signs of a player figuring out his game. If it is a fluky streak, it comes at an opportune time. Kassian won’t fetch a first round pick, but he might garner a prospect or a second or third round pick. But if he is figuring out his game, it would be silly to move him now. After all, he’s still only 24, he’s still a big body who can hit and (potentially) score points, and he still has a surprising touch of finesse in his offensive game. So what’s the best move?
The Canucks need to hold on to Kassian, at least for the rest of the season. I’m inclined to think this recent run is a sign that he’s starting to figure out how to play to his strengths while also learning to “fit the mold” of what the organization and coaching staff expects of him. The ride might still be pretty bumpy, but this is a promising sign. If they hold on for the rest of this season they at least get a better idea of who he is. If they don’t like him after this season, there’s still opportunities to make a move at the draft. But he needs a little more time to prove himself here. Patience is the name of the game for Benning when it comes to Kassian.