Law of Averages: Canucks in 6


In the 2010 NHL playoffs, Vancouver draws the 6th seeded Los Angeles Kings, whom they bested 3 games to 1 in their 4 game season series.

When covering playoff series in Fantasy leagues, I will often refer readers first to the season series.  It doesn’t always tell the full tale of the tape, and there are always anomalies, but usually offers a rough, workable outline.  I’m not a full on mathematician, but percentages and probability rate factor into most sports.  I haven’t seen the “Las Vegas line” for this series, but I’m assuming Vancouver is a favorite to win this series.

Being a Western conference team, the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks were scheduled 4 regular season games.  Using this as my reference point, the numbers indicate the Canucks won the lions share, 75% of the games this season.  Here’s a quick breakdown of those contests:

Oct. 29, 2009  – Whether a fan of the shootout or not, it’s here, and it favored the Canucks.  Scott Parse opened scoring in the 1st period, and Mikael Samuelsson answered in the 2nd period.  Samuelsson would also roof a beautiful backhand shot past Jonathan Quick in the shootout.  Andrew Raycroft was an anchor in net, making 30 stops earning a .967 sv %.  Vancouver wins 2-1.

Honestly, I can’t think of a better lesson for the Canucks to learn from in their final regular season meeting with Los Angeles.  “We can’t sit back,” said Ryan Kesler, one of the league’s top defensive forwards, who had a breakout offensive year (75 pts).  “If we change our game and become a defensive-minded team we’re not playing to our strengths.  We have who I think is the best goalie in the NHL and he allows us to take chances offensively.”

Based on the 2009/10 season, the law of averages argues that the Canucks should take this series.  Roberto Luongo should be one of the deciding factors in this series, leveraging them above the Kings and their inexperienced goaltending tandem.  The Sedins are rolling in hot and should prove too much for the Kings, who are going to have a very difficult time limiting Vancouver’s cycle.  Canucks in 6.