With the 2019-2020 NHL season starting in less than a month, here are my predictions for the point production of the Vancouver Canucks.
The Vancouver Canucks had an active summer following their 2018-2019 campaign where they finished nine points out of a playoff spot. Over the off season, the Canucks added roster players such as J.T. Miller and Tyler Myers. For the Canucks, staying healthy and consistent could perhaps mean playoff hockey come April.
Last season, the Canucks struggled when it came to health. Bo Horvat was the only player that played in all 82 games. Outside of Horvat, the Canucks only had seven players that played more than 70 games.
Here are my personal predictions on how each individual player will finish the year points-wise. To note, this list is on who I believe will make the team out of the pre-season, and this list also ignores any possible trades.
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How I got my numbers
I am going to go over my thought process to try to make my prediction very realistic, but feel free to skip this page and head straight for the predicted numbers if this does not interest you.
The biggest issue with predicting points of each player on a team is taking injuries and scratches into account. For this prediction, I took the averages of each main roster player over the past seasons and added or subtracted games from the average as I deemed likely. It was tougher with players who I thought would get sent down or that new depth would push out of the lineup, so some scenarios will be mentioned in the list. For those wanting to know the calculations, the forwards’ games played have to equal to 984 (82 games multiplied by 12 forward slots,) and 492 for defence (82 games multiplied by 6 defence slots).
For points and goal/assist ratio, I took the average of PPG (points-per-game) of each player and applied them to their predicted games played, moving a few numbers to add some of my own prediction on if they would improve, decrease this season.
For the younger players who are still growing in their game, I took their PPG numbers and compared them to each previous season, obtaining an average growth in point production, and adding that number onto their most recent season’s point total. Once again like mentioned, I did increase or decrease some numbers slightly after applying just for my own opinion on the matter.
I also took TOI (time on ice) into account as well. Take Miller for example, who averaged 14:40 of ice time last season playing mainly on the second and third line, for which I can safely predict that he will see an increase in TOI playing alongside either Pettersson or Horvat. With that increased TOI as well as potentially better linemates, I predict that Miller would see a slight increase in point production.
For the players who have recently joined the league (i.e. Quinn Hughes,) I looked at their stats in junior/NCAA/etc. and compared them with their NHLe (NHL equivalent calculated by Frozen Tools).
On the next page, I will go over the core-four players and why I went with their predicted numbers. Now enough about this, let’s get into my predictions!