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Vancouver Canucks: Losing Draft Lottery Will Be Difficult Task

By Janik Beichler

Jun 24, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA; Olli Juolevi poses for a photo after being selected as the number five overall draft pick by the Vancouver Canucks in the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft at the First Niagra Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 24, 2016; Buffalo, NY, USA; Olli Juolevi poses for a photo after being selected as the number five overall draft pick by the Vancouver Canucks in the first round of the 2016 NHL Draft at the First Niagra Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports /
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Vancouver Canucks fans are hoping for April 29 to be a great day in franchise history. But even if it isn’t, the club won’t have lost.

Saturday, April 29, could be a great day for the Vancouver Canucks organisation. The Canucks will have a 12.124 percent chance of winning the first-overall pick in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft through the league’s annual draft lottery. That would mark the first first-overall selection in franchise history.

With that pick, general manager Jim Benning could pick one of Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier to become the franchise’s future first-line center.

But, being Canucks fans, we know how unlikely this really is. This isn’t actually a story of statistical odds. This is about the Canucks never getting nice things.

Okay, we know that isn’t true. In reality, this is all about statistical odds. And Vancouver’s odds really aren’t that bad. But, we also know that, with a 12.124 percent chance, the Canucks will not win first overall about 88 out of 100 times.

Yet, the Canucks would not necessarily have “lost the lottery.”

The Top 2

Going into the year, the battle for No. 1 was Patrick vs. Timothy Liljegren. Today, it’s Patrick vs. Hischier.

And while Patrick is currently still ranked first by NHL Central Scouting as well as all independent services, Hischier is a serious candidate for first overall. How serious?

Well, TSN’s Bob McKenzie released an updated top 15 yesterday. The list is compiled by surveying NHL scouts. To be exact, it is a compilation of the opinions of exactly 10 NHL scouts. But not this time.

Must Read: Nolan Patrick 2017 Draft Profile

Five of 10 scouts voted for Patrick, the other five for Hischier. So, McKenzie went out and surveyed another 10. Again, five had Patrick at No. 1, the other five put Hischier at the top.

At this point, it’s worth pointing out that McKenzie surveyed “twenty NHL teams,” meaning he did not ask two scouts of the same club for their opinions.

With another tie at 20, McKenzie surveyed yet another three (smart move to use an odd number here for the first time so this can’t go on forever) to finally break the tie. The final result: 12-11 for Patrick.

Must Read: Nico Hischier 2017 Draft Profile

The last time the race for No. 1 was this tight was in 2010, when Taylor Hall “beat” Tyler Seguin to first overall.

What does this tell us? Whether the Canucks pick first or second, they will get an outstanding center prospect with first-line potential.

Losing Out

But what if the Canucks don’t get first or second, which is totally what experienced fans would expect? There may be a 23.9 percent chance of picking top-two, but that means there is also a 76.1 percent chance — which is obviously very high — of Vancouver falling down.

Luckily, there are more players to pick from.

Finnish defenseman Miro Heiskanen, for example, looked like a future No. 1 defenseman at the under-18 world championship. According to McKenzie, at least one NHL team has Heiskanen at No. 2, behind Patrick. Grant McCagg of Recrutes.ca, who factors in opinions of NHL scouts he talks to, has Heiskanen at No. 2 behind Hischier.

Must Read: Miro Heiskanen 2017 Draft Profile

Picking Heiskanen in the top three is a real option, and having Heiskanen and fellow Finn Olli Juolevi anchoring the Canucks’ future blue line would be a very positive story. And who knows, maybe that one team that has Heiskanen at No. 2 will pick before the Canucks, leaving Patrick or Hischier on the board.

Then there is center Gabriel Vilardi who, although one scout has Heiskanen at two, seems to be the NHL consensus third-overall pick. If the Canucks get him third (or even fourth) overall, they can be very happy.

Losing the Lottery

That leaves us with just one final scenario: picking fifth. For this scenario, there is a 30.7 percent chance, so this result will only happen in around 31 of 100 draws. Can we just hope the Canucks are lucky enough for this not to happen?

With prospects like center Casey Mittelstadt and defenseman Cale Makar, there will be promising players still available at No. 5. Scouts don’t seem as sure about them as they are about the top four, but they are still incredibly talented. For example, Makar has drawn comparisons to Swedish superstar Erik Karlsson because of his dynamic offensive style and elite potential.

This draft is supposedly weak, but if we simply accept the fact that it doesn’t have a future franchise player at the top, it isn’t that bad at all.

Next: Canucks Should Consider Trading Down at Draft

Sure, winning the draft lottery would be great. Being the first who gets to pick from a pool of things that aren’t equally good is always positive.

But, if the Canucks fall to third, fourth or fifth, they won’t have lost the lottery. They just won’t have won it either.

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