Scenarios: Canucks Run the California Gauntlet

It’s been a while since the Canucks have found themselves in a tight race for a playoff spot. Remember when it used to come so easy? They could ride the wave of games against teams like the Oilers, Flames, Wild and Avalanche to a guaranteed playoff berth. Now, thanks to the Pacific Division, they have to ride the waves of California, which are full of Sharks and vicious Ducks. And I guess some angry Kings that are able to swim. You get the idea. It’s not as easy to gain a playoff spot when you have to face three strong California teams rather frequently, and often in sequence. It just so happens the Canucks are running that gauntlet this week. They visit the Sharks on Saturday, then play the Ducks and Kings at home next week. Fortunately this tough stretch will be relieved by games against the Leafs and Flyers at home. Although given how the Canucks have played down to the level of their opposition lately, there’s really no telling how things will turn out.

A week ago I predicted the Canucks’ most likely record would be 3-1-1 as they finished their road trip and played the Blues and Sharks at home. I wasn’t too far off, as they went 3-2, although I totally was wrong about who they would beat and who they wouldn’t. But we’ve all been wrong about that lately; they keep beating really good teams and losing to terrible ones. Thursday’s loss to the Coyotes is an excellent example. Today it’s time for another round of Scenarios, as we look ahead to the next five games on the schedule. We’ll look at three scenarios: the best case, the worst case, the most likely. And for a bonus we’ll look at the least likely scenario, which will be ridiculous. You have been warned.

Best Case Scenario

Alexes Edler and Burrows are back in the lineup, so it would seem that things are lining up for Vancouver. But even with those guys back in the lineup, Thursday’s game was a rather unpleasant affair. I was starting to confuse the team with my local bakery, what with all the delicious turnovers they were serving up. The way they were playing you’d think they were offering gluten free options on request, they were so accommodating. Edler is one of the Canucks’ best puck-moving defensemen, but it will take some time for him to settle back into the game. He also needs Tanev, the glaze to his old fashioned donut, to really play at an optimum level. Unfortunately there is no real timetable for Tanev’s return, as far as I know. Head injuries are very tricky and best treated with caution.

But we’re talking about the best scenario, so let’s assume Edler finds his comfort zone quickly. On the Canucks website he’s listed as being lined up with Yannick Weber. Hopefully that pair can click and help the Canucks reboot their atrocious breakout. Even in their recent wins breaking out of the zone has been a serious challenge for the team. It’s clear they’re missing guys like Tanev and Bieksa, but Edler should provide some help. Burrows can only be a boost up front, giving Willie Desjardins some more offensive firepower and another option to play with the Sedins.

In a best case scenario, how do the Canucks do? Given the way they’ve played against difficult opponents lately, they could fare quite well. The caveat here, however, is their record against the California three. They currently sit at 3-5-2. They lost two against the Kings early in the season, and that team is only now starting to play up to the strong possession numbers they’ve been posting all year. As you can tell from all this positivity, even in a best case scenario I don’t see the Canucks winning all three of these games. The Leafs and Flyers? No problem. But the Sharks on the road? Maybe not. If all goes well they can probably win two of those games (I’ll say the Ducks in OT or a shootout, and the Kings).

Best Case Scenario: 4-1 (with one OT win against a division rival)

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Worst Case Scenario

One of the most frustrating parts of the last game against the Sharks was Jacob Markstrom’s performance. While the Canucks are fighting for a playoff spot, they’re also trying to figure out what they have in Markstrom They do have a guy whose middle name is Anders, which is one of the coolest names Sweden has to offer, but they’re probably more concerned about his play on the ice. At what point does Desjardins play him? I would love to see him get a chance at redemption against the Sharks on the road, but it’s hard to imagine Willie will do that. It’s more likely that he plays the Leafs when they come to town next week. If he loses that game, he and the Canucks are in some trouble. Miller is not due back for a few weeks, and too many starts in a row is not good for Eddie Lack, as we learned last season. Markstrom will have to prove himself a reliable backup or things could get difficult down the stretch.

As far as the California gauntlet goes, a worst case scenario is always the dreaded losing streak. It would be a huge blow to the team to give up ground to the Sharks and Kings, both of whom are chasing them in the standings. At the time of this writing they have four points and a game in hand on the Sharks, but the Kings are really breathing down their necks. The Kings are equal in games played and only behind by two points. These games are crucial. A worst case scenario has them losing all three (although getting one OT point, probably against the Ducks), and then only winning one of two against the Leafs and Flyers. It would be especially bad if Markstrom does start against the Leafs and puts in a poor performance.

Worst Case Scenario: 1-3-1

Most Likely Scenario

The “Edler effect” will start to be felt soon, hopefully as soon as Saturday night’s game against the Sharks. The Canucks may or may not be able to win, but they have to at least be competitive. It would be great to push that one to OT, just to guarantee one point out of it. I’m not that optimistic about them winning it. The must-win game in this stretch is the game against the Kings on Thursday. I think they can win it, but they might find themselves stumbling against the Ducks on Monday. The games against the Leafs and Flyers are winnable, and I think they will rise to the challenge for both.

Most Likely Scenario: 3-1-1

Least Likely Scenario

“I suppose you’re wondering why we’ve called you all here.” Henrik Sedin stands in front of his teammates, his brother Daniel beside him. The team, seated in front of them, looks on in curiosity. “My brother Daniel and I, we, well . . .” at this Henrik becomes emotional and seems unable to get the words out. Daniel continues: “What my brother is trying to say is that our time here . . . our time here has come to an end. It’s time for us to go.”

“What are you talking about?” asks Alex Burrows incredulously. “What time here? What do you mean?”

Henrik, having regained his composure, answers. “You see Alex, we’re not from here.”

“Of course you’re not. You’re from Sweden,” answers Burrows.

“No,” says Henrik. “What I mean is that we’re not from this planet. We’ve come from a distant galaxy to observe your species and this mysterious game you call ‘hockey.’ You see, where we come from, the game you call ‘hockey’ is the way our galaxy does battle, except the sticks are very sharp and the pucks explode. It is very gruesome, let me assure you. And my planet, my people, are in danger. The only way for us to save our planet was to come here to yours and perfect the game of hockey.”

“But now,” explains Daniel, “we have perfected our craft to the point that we can go back and save our planet. Once we scored that goal against the Sharks, we knew it was time.”

“Why did you stay for the game against the Coyotes then?” asks Alex Edler.

“We just think Arizona is a really cool place,” says Daniel. “But now we must go.”

“Farewell, dear friends,” says Henrik, “we will miss you dearly. But our planet needs us now.”

With that, Henrik takes Daniel in his arms, and like Lee Majors and Marge Simpson, they fly away out of sight.

The rest of the team is rudderless without their captain and his brother. They miss the playoffs, and each player spends the offseason wondering if it was him who did something to make them leave. But deep down they know that they had to let them go, for the good of the universe.